But perhaps the biggest challenge to a follow-up agreement is simply the dangerous state of U.S.-Russian relations – a “deep crisis,” as several Russian officials say.30 Even at the best of times, it is difficult to negotiate a strategic arms control agreement. In the present circumstances, if the default assumption for each state is that the other is acting with bad intentions and they have to deal with new technologies that have never been regulated, the negotiations would probably be particularly hectic. The Air Force plans to replace the Minuteman III rocket, its launch control facilities and command and control infrastructure. The Air Force plans to purchase more than 600 missiles, 400 of which will be operational by 2070. The remaining missiles would be used for test flights and as spare parts. The replacement program is called Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD). The service strives to achieve significant performance improvements under the recapitalization program. The Pentagon set the estimated acquisition cost of the program at $85 billion in August 2016 and the total lifecycle cost at $238 billion (in dollars from the previous year). The $85 billion estimate is at the bottom of an independent estimate of Pentagon costs, which has estimated the acquisition price at $140 billion.
Citing Russian violations, the Donald J. Trump administration pulled the United States out of the Cold War Pact, which bans medium-sized nuclear missiles launched on the ground. In February, the United States abandoned its obligations under the ISF treaty after Russia continued to challenge the possession of a banned cruise missile. NATO allies supported the U.S. accusation. The withdrawal comes amid a series of disputes with Russia over Ukraine, Syria and interference in the elections. Some analysts warn that the collapse of the treaty could launch a new nuclear arms race. Central borders. Intercontinental ground missiles (IGLBGMs) and nuclear (NT) missiles – nuclear or conventional – are new types of strategic offensive weapons and should be held accountable by contract. Based on the reservations expressed in previous arms control agreements, the United States and Russia propose the creation of a common data exchange centre and a pre-launch notification system, systems to reduce the risk of involuntary missile launches on the basis of a false attack warning. The proposal was first launched in September 1998 by Yeltsin, who proposed to own the centre “on Russian territory”.
Washington and Moscow sign a Memorandum of Understanding on the center two years after Yeltsin`s proposal. The centre has not yet been built, but plans to break the ground continue. Russia and the United States have nuclear forces that could destroy states and much of the rest of the world, several times more in a matter of minutes. Over most of the past five decades, a number of contracts have regulated these arsenals. Today, only one of these contracts – New START – is in effect and expires on February 5, 2021. An end to nuclear arms control would undermine the security of Russia and the United States. The two states should therefore begin negotiations for a mutually beneficial follow-up agreement and, in order to buy time for this process, extend New START. This document proposes important provisions for a follow-up contract. Other technological developments – nuclear-powered cruise missiles, ALBMs, Boost Glide missiles (ALBGMs) and SLBGMs – are also relevant to a follow-up contract.
